🇮🇳🇵🇰 The Water Dispute: What’s at Stake? India has formally declared that it will never restore the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, effectively denying Pakistan access to water from the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This water supplied approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural irrigation, making the dispute existential for millions of Pakistanis. The Express Tribune +14, Reuters +14, Al Jazeera +14. India’s Home Minister Amit Shah stated that the water previously destined for Pakistan will instead be diverted to support Indian states like Rajasthan, framing past Pakistani usage as “unjustified”. Reuters+1 Al Jazeera+1.   Can Pakistan Be Stopped From Receiving This Water? Under the treaty, Pakistan maintains usage rights to these rivers. However, India’s declaration to suspend, or hold the treaty in "abeyance"—a move not permitted under the treaty’s binding terms—has already led to reduced flows from the Chenab River, causing a reported 21% water deficit during the critical early Kharif season. A 7% shortfall is projected for late Kharif mint + 1. Indian Defence News + 1. Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has confirmed a significant drop in flows at major headworks, signalling immediate agricultural disruption across Punjab, Sindh, and other provinces mint+1 HindustanTimes+1. Experts argue that quitting or halting the treaty constitutes a serious breach of international water-sharing norms, and Pakistan has formally expressed concerns to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), accusing India of “weaponising water” and violating treaty obligations. The Times of India +6, Pakistan Today +6, Al Jazeera +6.   Pakistan’s Political and Legal Response Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denounced India's actions as “water aggression, ”vowing a united national response to defend treaty rights. A high-level committee has been created to coordinate responses and accelerate new dam and storage infrastructure projects like the Diamer‑Bhasha and Mohmand dams. The Express Tribune. Senator Syed Ali Zafar warned Parliament that millions rely on the Indus Basin and that failing to act could lead to famine. He referred to India’s suspension as a “water bomb” that threatens Pakistan’s food security and sovereignty. The Guardian +5 Al Jazeera +5 The Times of India +5. Former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari cautioned Pakistan against rising tensions, stating the water dispute could escalate into war and emphasising the illegality of India’s unilateral treaty suspension. Wikipedia+7 Anadolu Ajansı+7 The Express Tribune +7.   Immediate Consequences and Wider Implications Area Impact Agriculture & Food Security Punjab, the country’s granary, is worst hit with a 21% shortfall in supplies during planting season; Sindh also faces deficits and potential desertification concerns. Hydrological Data & Planning Reduced transparency on upstream flows complicates Pakistan’s reservoir and flood management strategies. The Economic Times +15 Al Jazeera +15 The Times of India +15. Legal Outlook Pakistan has appealed to international tribunals and reaffirmed that unilateral treaty withdrawal is unlawful under customary international law. Pakistan Today, Al Jazeera. Domestic Infrastructure Push Pakistan aims to fast-track dam projects to build resilience, including the Diamer‑Bhasha and Mohmand dams, with portions of national development funding dedicated to water security. The Express Tribune.   Outlook: How Pakistan Can Respond International Legal Action Pakistan is pursuing arbitration through international courts and reaffirming the binding nature of the IWT and the role of the Permanent Indus Commission. Anadolu Ajansı+15, Pakistan Today+15, Reuters+15. National Infrastructure Mobilization Emergency water management, new reservoirs, and revised irrigation distribution are being prioritised to cope with reduced inflows. Diplomatic Pressure Islamabad continues to mobilise international support and warn against viewing water denial as a military or existential threat. Hindustan Times, 9reddit.com, Wikipedia, 9New York Post, 15Anadolu Ajansı, and 15mint. Domestic Resilience Measures Diversification of water sources, promoting conservation, and exploring inter-provincial conflict resolution are part of broader resilience planning.   In Summary: India has unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, denying water access to Pakistan from western rivers. Pakistan is facing already measurable agricultural shortages and hydrological stress. While India claims legal rights over diverted water, Pakistan contests this through international legal channels and national infrastructure efforts. The situation remains highly tense, with both ecological and political consequences looming.